Predictive of actual USMLE performance

USMLE-Rx Predicts USMLE Step 1 Performance 

 

Rationale: Medical students have few validated predictors of USMLE performance. We hypothesized that USMLE-Rx Step 1 Qmax could predict USMLE Step 1 performance.

 

Methods: In this prospective cohort study, 26 U.S. medical students who used USMLE-Rx Step 1 Qmax for USMLE preparation completed baseline questionnaires regarding their performance on USMLE-Rx, Kaplan Qbank and the Medical College Admissions Test (MCAT). All questionnaires were completed within one week of participants taking their Step 1 examination. Participants subsequently reported their 3-digit USMLE Step 1 scores when they became available. Spearman’s rho and single linear regression modeling were used to assess associations between variables.

 

Results: See table below. Participants had higher than average scores for the USMLE Step 1, MCAT, and USMLE-Rx Step 1 Qmax. USMLE-Rx scores strongly correlated with USMLE scores. Kaplan and MCAT scores had moderate correlation. In single linear regression modeling, USMLE-Rx Step 1 Qmax, Kaplan Qbank and MCAT scores were highly significant predictors of USMLE performance with high T-scores. USMLE-Rx Step 1 Qmax scores were able to account almost 80% of the variance in USMLE scores.

 

Test

Mean score (SD)

Correlation (Rho)

T-score

p-value

Variance (R2)

USMLERx Step 1 Qmax

68.9 ±7.7

0.89

7.95

<.001

0.79

Kaplan Qbank

67.6±7.2

0.76

5.17

<.001

0.67

MCAT

31.7 ±0.5

0.73

4.80

<.001

0.59

USMLE (3-digit)

234.7 ±19.8

-

 

usmlerx-prediction-graph2.jpg

 

Conclusions: USMLE-Rx Step 1 Qmax, Kaplan Qbank and MCAT scores appear to be significant predictors of USMLE performance. In this sample, USMLE-Rx was highly correlated with the USMLE Step 1 performance and was able to predict approximately 80% of the variation in USMLE scores.


You can also use the following formula:
USMLE-Rx Step Qmax(%)*2.64 + 47 = USMLE Step 1 3-digit score (+/- 20 for the 95% CI)